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Tầng 7, Tòa nhà hội nhà báo Việt Nam
Lô E2-KĐT Cầu Giấy, Phố Dương Đình Nghệ, Phường Yên Hòa, Quận Cầu Giấy, Hà Nội
08:00 - 17:30
Từ thứ 2 đến thứ 6
02/01/2019 15:17
According to the recent analysis of VNDIRECT Securities JSC, the agriculture and aquaculture sectors; Vietnam's industrial and logistics, transport & port real estate properties can benefit if the trade war between the US and China lasts.
Trade tension continues to last
According to VNDIRECT, both China and the US have yet to show signs of a shift in the trade tariff war.
In fact, over the past time, China has suffered some significant losses such as the stock market decline, the yuan depreciated and the investment capital flow is slowing down. Meanwhile the US economy is still in a positive period. Therefore, VNDIRECT believes that the US will continue to increase the pressure and try to win favorable agreements and big concessions from China.
Stability period escalated
Even when the Turkish crisis took place at the same time as the ghost of the US-China trade war, the stock market was only slightly adjusted. The cause may come from the sudden positive US economic data and the last boom of US technology stocks.
With the world's largest economy being supported by a momentary impact from the tax reform, VNDIRECT believes that growth may slow down in the coming time. Once the market starts to realize a shortfall in the US economy, the negative effects of the trade war will gradually emerge more clearly for the financial market.
In short, VNDIRECT considers a follow-up correction of the global financial market waiting, unless the world's two largest economies give in and make breakthrough deals.
Impact on Vietnam is strongest in the period 2020-2021
In a recent conference, the National Center for Socio-Economic Information and Forecasting (NCIF) gave assessments of the impact of US-China trade war on Vietnam. According to NCIF, Vietnam's GDP may decline by only 0.03% in 2018 (equivalent to US $ 60 million) when the first taxation takes effect, but this impact will increase to 0.12% per year. in the period 2020-2021. Without mentioning the accuracy of the above forecast, VNDIRECT said that Vietnam's economy will suffer the most in the period 2020-2021.
Some industries can benefit from trade war:
VNDIRECT realized that some economic sectors of Vietnam could benefit somewhat from the US-China trade war in the case of prolonged stress, specifically:
(1) Agriculture and aquaculture: China's imposition of a tax on retaliation on US agricultural products can help Vietnamese enterprises penetrate the vast Chinese consumer market, taking advantage of opportunities from the gap left by US businesses.
(2) Industrial estate real estate: FDI inflows into Vietnam may increase due to Chinese enterprises placing Vietnamese factories to export through the US or Korean, Japanese and other countries. may stop plans to expand production capacity in China but move to Southeast Asia.
(3) Logistics, Transport & Port Operation: The possibility of more FDI will flow into Vietnam means that the capacity of outbound and inbound cargo traffic in Vietnam will be higher. However, this seems to be a long-term opportunity when in the short term, cargo traffic may decline due to trade tension and ongoing uncertainties.